财政或比关税重要——2026年美国通胀上行风险分析

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the inflation trends in the United States for 2025 and the potential risks for 2026, emphasizing that inflation may not be a precondition for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve but rather a response to economic conditions, with significant risks stemming from additional fiscal stimulus [2][3][4]. Summary by Sections 2025 US Inflation Overview - In 2025, the US inflation showed a reverse N-shaped trend with CPI year-on-year rates of 2.7%, 2.4%, 2.9%, and 2.7%, while core CPI rates were 3.1%, 2.8%, 3.1%, and 2.6% respectively [2][8]. - The CPI components include food (approximately 13.6% weight), energy (6.4%), core goods (19.3%), rent (33.7%), and super core services (27%) [8][11]. - The moderate recovery in CPI during Q2 and Q3 was primarily driven by core goods and energy, influenced by tariffs and base effects [11][12]. - The impact of tariffs on inflation was manageable, with consumers potentially bearing only 1/3 to 50% of the tariff costs due to businesses absorbing some of the costs [11][12]. - The decline in Q4 was attributed to technical issues from government shutdowns affecting data collection and a potential peak in tariff price impacts, with many tariff-affected goods seeing price declines [12][11]. 2026 US Inflation Risks - The inflation in 2026 is viewed as a potential economic feedback rather than a precursor to interest rate cuts, with the main risk being additional fiscal stimulus [3][4]. - Excluding tariff impacts, CPI year-on-year is slightly above 2%, indicating limited potential for core goods inflation to rise further [3][13]. - The likelihood of food and energy inflation rebounding is low, supported by measures taken by the Trump administration to lower food prices and a stable oil price environment [3][13]. - The main inflationary pressures will depend on the recovery of the job market, particularly in super core services and housing inflation [17][19]. - The most significant risk arises from potential fiscal stimulus driven by midterm election pressures, with Trump possibly proposing additional measures to gain voter support if current non-spending measures fail [4][19]. December 2025 CPI Data Commentary - The December CPI data showed a slight miss against expectations, with CPI year-on-year at 2.7% and core CPI at 2.6%, both aligning with Bloomberg's forecasts [22]. - Food prices contributed positively to CPI, while energy prices had a mixed impact, with gasoline prices declining [26][29]. - Core goods prices remained stable, with notable declines in prices for used cars and tariff-affected items like furniture and appliances [28][29].