再论出口强在中游：2026机电出口或延续景气——12月进出口数据点评

Core Viewpoint - In December, China's exports increased by 6.6% year-on-year, exceeding expectations of 3%, while imports rose by 5.7%, also surpassing the forecast of 0.9% [2][3] Group 1: December Export Performance - The increase in December exports was driven by four categories of electromechanical products: mobile phones, computers, vehicles, and integrated circuits [4][12] - Mobile phone exports improved mainly due to a low base effect from the previous year, with a year-on-year increase of 10.5% in December [14] - Vehicle exports, particularly in new energy vehicles, showed strong performance with a 119.8% year-on-year increase in December [18][19] - Integrated circuit exports surged by 48% year-on-year in December, benefiting from increased technology import demand [22] - Computer exports were mixed, with strong performance in parts and accessories, while the overall equipment export remained weak [24] Group 2: Outlook for 2025 and 2026 - The outlook for 2025 indicates sustained strength in electromechanical exports, with a projected growth of 8.4% for the year [28] - The contribution of intermediate goods to exports is increasing, while consumer goods are showing a negative contribution [34] - The profitability of midstream manufacturing has improved, with overseas gross margins exceeding domestic margins, indicating enhanced competitiveness [44] Group 3: Import and Export Data - December exports showed a significant recovery, with a month-on-month increase of 8.3%, higher than the historical averages [53] - The export quantity for major goods saw a substantial recovery, with a year-on-year increase of 17% in December [56] - The performance of major export regions varied, with the U.S. showing a decline of 30.6% in December, while non-U.S. markets performed strongly [65]