光伏周价格 | 硅料跌破60元预期增强，电池组件受成本强力支撑

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the photovoltaic (PV) industry, highlighting price trends, supply and demand dynamics, and the impact of regulatory measures on market conditions. Group 1: Polysilicon - The current polysilicon inventory has exceeded 500,000 tons, indicating a continuous accumulation phase in the market [5] - There is a significant decline in terminal demand, leading to strong resistance from downstream sectors against high-priced polysilicon, resulting in insufficient market support [6] - Due to regulatory pressures and downstream resistance, there is an expectation of further price declines, with current market prices dropping below RMB 60 per kilogram [7] Group 2: Silicon Wafers - Silicon wafer inventory remains high at over 20 GW, with slow inventory reduction due to limited actual shipments [8] - Although there are slight production increases in the downstream battery sector, there is still a lack of substantial support for silicon wafer demand, leading to increasing price pressure from battery manufacturers [9] - The price of silicon wafers is expected to decline slightly due to weak upward momentum and dual pressures from raw material costs and downstream pricing demands [10] Group 3: Battery Cells - Industry-wide production cuts have reduced inventory levels to 6-8 days, with most manufacturers maintaining low operational levels due to cost and shipment pressures [10] - The implementation of export tax rebate policies has led to a slight increase in shipments, primarily benefiting integrated companies rather than specialized battery manufacturers [11] - Prices remain strong above RMB 0.4 per watt due to surging non-silicon costs driven by rising silver prices, with future trends heavily reliant on silver price fluctuations and upstream polysilicon pricing [12] Group 4: Photovoltaic Modules - Significant inventory reduction is observed in the market, with distributors and project parties accumulating low-priced orders due to concerns over future price increases [13] - The export tax rebate policy has stimulated overseas order demand, primarily benefiting leading integrated companies, while domestic acceptance of prices around RMB 0.8 remains low [13] - Module prices have rebounded quickly due to battery cell cost support, with short-term price resilience expected, contingent on the sustainability of overseas demand and silver price volatility [15]