研报 | 新机调价影响销售需求，2026年第二季度起智能手机生产承压明显

Core Insights - The smartphone market is facing dual pressures of tight memory supply and soaring prices, leading to increased terminal product prices and weakened demand starting from the second half of 2025 [2] - Despite a conservative outlook, brands are prioritizing resource locking in memory procurement to avoid higher future costs, even as some brands begin to lower their annual production targets [2][3] - The overall economic environment is weak, consumer behavior is becoming more conservative, and rising memory prices are prompting TrendForce to revise down its 2026 smartphone production forecast by 7% compared to previous estimates [3] Group 1 - The smartphone market is expected to see a significant decline in production performance starting in Q2 2026 due to cost pressures from increased terminal prices [2] - Brands are adjusting specifications and re-establishing pricing strategies to mitigate earlier price hikes, with major production plan adjustments anticipated between Q2 and Q3 2026 [3] - If retail inventory turnover does not improve, some brands may reduce future production plans starting from the end of Q1 2026 [2] Group 2 - The adjustment period for brands in terms of output and product structure is critical in the first half of 2026 [3] - The extent of further downward revisions to production forecasts will depend on memory price trends and the market's acceptance of price increases [3]