如果鲍威尔选择留下来继续硬刚呢？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the political implications of the criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, highlighting the unprecedented nature of such actions against a central bank leader in U.S. history and the potential impact on the independence of the Federal Reserve [3][12]. Group 1: Powell's Situation - Powell's term as chairman ends in May, but his term as a board member lasts until January 2028, raising questions about whether he will remain on the board after stepping down as chairman [5]. - The market's perception of Powell's potential departure shifted significantly after the announcement of the investigation, with the probability of him leaving the board dropping from 85% to 75% [7]. - Historical precedents exist where past Fed chairs have chosen to remain on the board after their chairmanship ended, suggesting Powell might do the same [8]. Group 2: Political Context - The investigation is seen as a warning to other Federal Reserve members and government officials about the consequences of not adhering to political expectations [3]. - The use of the Justice Department for a criminal investigation against a Fed chair is unprecedented in the 112-year history of the Federal Reserve, indicating a significant escalation in political tensions [12]. - Global central bank leaders have expressed solidarity with Powell, condemning the political attacks against him, which contrasts with the lack of support for other central bank leaders facing similar issues in different countries [13][19]. Group 3: Implications for Governance - The article suggests that the independence of central banks may be perceived differently depending on the political context, raising questions about the universality of the concept of central bank independence [20]. - The notion of "technocratic governance" is being challenged, as many view it as a political stance rather than a neutral position, especially in the context of rising populism [20]. Group 4: Future Considerations - The uncertainty surrounding Powell's future could lead to increased volatility in predictions regarding the next Federal Reserve chair, as his decision to remain could influence the nomination process [21]. - The investigation may deter capable individuals from pursuing public service roles due to the potential legal repercussions of political disagreements, creating a "chilling effect" on governance [22][23]. - The market's initial reaction to the investigation was muted, but the article warns of a potential "systemic rupture" that could lead to a significant reevaluation of the financial credit system [24][25].