谁在坚定的看好铜？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in the prices of non-ferrous metals, particularly copper and silver, driven by supply constraints, macroeconomic factors, and increasing demand from AI and new energy infrastructure [3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - On January 15, the non-ferrous metal sector saw a comprehensive rise, with silver and small metals performing strongly, including Hunan Silver which rose over 8% [2]. - Energy metal themes remain active, with gold, silver, and copper prices reaching historical highs this week [3]. Group 2: Price Drivers - The current rise in copper prices can be traced back to November 2025, influenced by tight global copper mine supply, trade flow restructuring due to U.S. tariff expectations, and accelerated demand from AI and new energy infrastructure [3][4]. - The expectation of tight supply in non-U.S. regions has increased due to ongoing disruptions in major copper-producing areas since 2025, leading to heightened market supply tension for electrolytic copper [4][5]. Group 3: U.S. Policy Impact - In the second half of 2025, the U.S. officially listed copper as a critical mineral and initiated a strategic resource reserve plan, causing a significant reallocation of global electrolytic copper resources towards the U.S. market [5]. - The anticipated 25% tariff on copper imports proposed by the U.S. starting February 2025 has triggered a dramatic restructuring of global trade paths, with COMEX copper inventories rising from approximately 100,000 tons in February 2025 to 484,066 tons by January 2026 [6]. Group 4: Domestic Market Dynamics - Domestic policies are increasingly focused on resource security and reducing low-level redundant construction in copper smelting, promoting high-efficiency and high-value-added production [7]. - The Chinese copper export volume significantly increased in January 2026, alleviating domestic inventory pressure but exacerbating global non-U.S. resource shortages [6][7]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that while copper prices may experience short-term corrections, structural demand will continue to support prices, with expectations that copper could take over from gold in terms of market performance [8]. - The price of copper is expected to be influenced more by supply-demand dynamics, particularly due to global energy transitions, with the copper-gold ratio currently at historical lows [8][9].