730亿AI订单，博通的增长底气

Core Viewpoint - The company's Q4 2025 financial results support a "strong buy" rating due to significant revenue growth and strong performance in AI-related sales [1]. Financial Performance - Q4 2025 net revenue reached $18.015 billion, a 28% year-over-year increase, with semiconductor sales growing 35% to $11.1 billion, driven by a 74% surge in AI-related sales [4][5]. - Gross margin improved from 64% to 68%, with operating income rising 62% to $7.508 billion and operating margin expanding from 32.9% to 41.7% [6]. - Adjusted EBITDA grew 34% to $12.2 billion, and free cash flow increased 36% to $7.5 billion, reflecting strong demand for AI inference and training chips [6]. Future Guidance - For Q1, the company expects a 28% year-over-year revenue increase to $19.1 billion, with semiconductor sales projected to grow 50%, including a doubling of AI semiconductor sales to $8.2 billion [7]. - The anticipated EBITDA margin for the upcoming quarter is 67%, indicating potential for further profit margin improvement despite a shift in revenue structure towards lower-margin semiconductor business [7]. Valuation and Stock Price Target - Analysts utilize a mixed valuation multiple for the company's stock, estimating a price target of $498.39, representing a 47% upside based on projected growth in high-performance computing processors [10]. - The median EV/EBITDA multiple suggests the current stock price is reasonably valued, with future earnings expectations adjusted upward by 18% and 40% for the next few years [10]. Growth Drivers - The company is positioned to play a crucial role in the AI chip market, with $73 billion in AI orders expected to be delivered over the next 18 months [14]. - VMware's contributions to software solutions are also noted, although software companies typically face lower valuation multiples [14]. Cash Flow and Shareholder Returns - Cash conversion rates are expected to recover to 2023 levels by 2028, with capital expenditures remaining low relative to operating cash flow [12]. - Shareholder returns are projected to increase, although not at the same pace as free cash flow growth, which is expected to be rapid [12].