鞠建东：为什么我们需要资本账户开放？｜宏观经济

Core Viewpoint - The key assertion presented is that the rebalancing of global manufacturing is fundamentally linked to the rebalancing of the international monetary system, with a strategic window for capital account opening anticipated between 2026 and 2027 [2][6]. Group 1: U.S. Short-term Debt Default Risk and Triffin's Dilemma - The potential for U.S. short-term debt default is discussed, emphasizing the need for a balance between the real economy and the financial sector [4]. - The concept of "Triffin's Dilemma" is introduced, indicating that if the U.S. economy's share in the global economy falls below a certain threshold, it could lead to a default on its debt and the collapse of the dollar system [5][6]. - The Trump administration's approach to tariffs, dollar policy, and military actions are identified as tools to address the impending crisis related to Triffin's Dilemma [5]. Group 2: Global Economic Rebalancing - The rebalancing of the U.S. economy is framed as a structural adjustment between manufacturing and finance, necessitating collaboration with China and Europe [6]. - Data indicates that China's foreign exchange trading share is significantly lower than its GDP share, highlighting systemic issues related to its capital account not being open [6][7]. - The strong dollar is identified as a threat to U.S. manufacturing, leading to resource allocation issues and increased risks of debt default [7]. Group 3: Risks of Continued Global Imbalance - The ongoing global imbalance is attributed to differences in productivity and systemic issues within the international monetary framework, particularly China's closed capital account [8]. - Two potential paths to address this imbalance are proposed: a "Corner Solution" or an "Interior Solution" through capital account opening [8]. Group 4: Potential Crisis Development Paths - Two theoretical scenarios for China are outlined: the risk of a "Japan-style crisis" and the potential for military conflict if economic stagnation occurs [9]. - The second scenario suggests that as China's military and technological capabilities grow, the risks associated with the dollar crisis may increase, potentially leading to military actions by the U.S. [10]. Group 5: Goals for Renminbi Internationalization and Capital Account Opening - The goal of renminbi internationalization is to establish it as a normal currency in the international monetary system, rather than to challenge the dollar's dominance [12]. - A structured approach to capital account opening is proposed, emphasizing the importance of timing, floating exchange rate mechanisms, and gradual opening of capital projects [13][14]. Group 6: Strategic Opportunity Period and Cooperation Suggestions - The years 2026-2027 are identified as a strategic opportunity for capital account opening, with a call for proactive measures to avoid forced openings due to conflict [15]. - A recommendation is made to use the opening of the renminbi capital account as a leverage point for global cooperation to address manufacturing imbalances [15].