国泰海通｜策略：美国对委特别行动，伊朗局势悄然生变

Global Geopolitical Developments - Venezuelan President Maduro was captured by U.S. Delta Force on January 5, 2026, and appeared in court in New York [1] - Protests and unrest have erupted in Iran since December 28, 2025, due to rising prices and currency devaluation, resulting in casualties among security personnel and civilians [1] - The changes in regions like Syria, Venezuela, and Iran are attributed to a "vacuum of influence" in Russia's traditional sphere amid the Ukraine conflict [1] Domestic Economic and Industrial Policies - On January 6, 2026, the Ministry of Commerce announced a ban on the export of dual-use items to Japanese military users, including rare earth elements [2] - On January 7, 2026, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and eight other departments issued a notice on the implementation of the "AI + Manufacturing" special action plan [2] - On January 9, 2026, the National Medical Products Administration published a plan for two recommended industry standards for medical devices using brain-computer interface technology [2] - On January 10, 2026, the Radio Innovation Institute submitted an application for an additional 203,000 satellites to the International Telecommunication Union, with over 190,000 from this new institution [2] Capital Market Dynamics - On December 29, 2025, the China Banking and Insurance Asset Management Association released a guide for data classification and grading in the insurance asset management industry [3] - On December 31, 2025, the Financial Supervisory Authority introduced the "Commercial Bank M&A Loan Management Measures," while the China Securities Association released two self-regulatory rules for commercial real estate REITs [3] - On January 5, 2026, the China Securities Index Company launched 15 new comprehensive bond indices covering core domestic bond varieties, enhancing market index tools [3] Global Geopolitical and Economic Tracking - The U.S. has been increasingly taking military actions and threats against several countries, including the capture of Maduro and threats against Colombia and Mexico [4] - The Federal Reserve's expectations for a rate cut in January have cooled, with ADP data showing a private sector job increase of 41,000 in December, reversing the previous month's decline [4] - As of January 3, 2026, initial jobless claims in the U.S. were reported at 208,000, slightly below expectations, indicating resilience in the labor market [4]