国泰海通｜宏观：出口：总量温和、结构更优、韧性犹存——2025年12月贸易数据点评

Core Insights - The article highlights the strong performance of Chinese exports in December, driven by the expansion of new orders in non-US and non-transshipment markets, as well as robust momentum in capital goods exports [1][2] - Despite a high base effect from export surges in December 2024, the export growth rate remains strong, suggesting a more optimistic outlook for exports in 2026 [1][2] Export Performance - In December 2025, China's export growth rate in USD terms was 6.6%, up from a previous value of 5.9%, while import growth was 5.7%, an increase from 1.9% [1] - The trade surplus in December rose slightly to $114.1 billion, with a month-on-month export growth rate of 8.3%, surpassing the 7.6% growth in December 2024 and significantly exceeding the seasonal average of 3.5% from 2021 to 2023 [1] Structural Changes - The export landscape is shifting from a focus on external demand to structural factors, indicating a more resilient growth trajectory [2] - The anticipated export growth for 2026 is projected to be around 1-3%, with the potential for further upward revisions due to strong underlying export momentum [2] - Non-US and non-transshipment markets are becoming a stable source of incremental growth, supported by geopolitical conflicts and demand for equipment capital goods [2] Regional and Product Insights - Exports to the US decreased by 30.0% (previously -28.6%), while exports to ASEAN increased by 11.1% (previously +8.2%), and to Latin America by 9.8% (previously +14.9%) [8] - The growth rate for other regions was 13.7% (previously +12.9%), with BRICS countries showing significant improvement at 12.0% (previously +4.1%) [8] - The strong performance in machinery and electronics continues, with notable growth in automotive exports, a recovery in electronics, and resilience in equipment, while labor-intensive and real estate-related sectors remain weak [8]