三分法，我们自己的永久投资组合

Core Concept - The article discusses the "Permanent Portfolio" investment strategy proposed by Harry Browne, which aims to generate returns regardless of economic conditions by diversifying investments across four asset types: stocks, long-term bonds, gold, and cash [1][3]. Economic Environments - Browne identifies four economic environments: inflation, deflation, economic growth, and economic recession, each influencing different asset classes [3][5]. - In economic growth, corporate profits rise, leading to increased stock prices [5]. - Inflation results in high demand, causing commodity prices to rise due to supply shortages [6][7]. - Deflation indicates weak demand, prompting governments to lower interest rates, which boosts bond prices [9][10]. - During economic recessions, holding cash provides a safety net and allows for opportunistic investments [11]. Investment Strategy - The strategy involves dividing capital equally into four parts (25% each) and investing in the identified asset classes, ensuring that at least one asset is likely to perform well regardless of economic conditions [12][13]. - The portfolio requires periodic rebalancing to maintain the 25% allocation, adjusting for any significant price changes in the assets [15][19]. Performance and Adaptation - Over 50 years, the Permanent Portfolio achieved an annualized return of 8%-9%, with only four years of slight losses, demonstrating resilience even during market downturns [23][24]. - The concept has been widely adopted by financial institutions in developed countries, including sovereign wealth funds and endowment funds [31]. Comparison with New Strategies - The article introduces a new investment tool called "Three-Part Method," which modifies the Permanent Portfolio approach by replacing cash with short-term bonds for better efficiency [32][36]. - The Three-Part Method diversifies investments across various global markets, including A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and others, to capture broader economic growth [39]. - It allows for personalized asset allocation based on individual risk tolerance, contrasting with the fixed allocation of the Permanent Portfolio [41]. Investment Execution - The Three-Part Method encourages regular investment through dollar-cost averaging, which helps mitigate the risks of market volatility and promotes disciplined investing [44]. - It emphasizes three types of diversification: asset diversification (stocks, bonds, commodities), market diversification (various global stock markets), and time diversification (through regular investments and rebalancing) [48].