【广发宏观钟林楠】2025年最后一份金融数据及结构性工具降息简评

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights a significant increase in social financing in December 2025, with a total of 2.2 trillion yuan, exceeding market expectations, while showing a year-on-year decrease in growth rate. The report emphasizes the strong performance of corporate loans and bonds, contrasting with weaker government debt issuance [1][9]. Summary by Sections Social Financing and Loan Growth - In December 2025, social financing increased by 2.2 trillion yuan, higher than the market average expectation of 1.9 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 6462 billion yuan. The stock growth rate of social financing was 8.3%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month but up 0.3 percentage points from the end of 2024 [1][9]. - For the entire year of 2025, the total social financing increased by 35.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, compared to a decline of 9.4% in 2024 [7][16]. Corporate and Government Debt - In December, corporate loans increased by 980.4 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 140.2 billion yuan. The increase in short-term loans was particularly notable, rising by 370 billion yuan, significantly higher than the same period in previous years [10]. - Government debt financing in December was 683.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.1 trillion yuan year-on-year. For the entire year of 2025, government debt financing totaled 13.8 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.5 trillion yuan year-on-year [11]. Trust and Commission Loans - Trust loans increased by 680 billion yuan in December, showing a year-on-year increase of 529 billion yuan, indicating a notable improvement over the past two months. This was driven by policy financial tools stimulating infrastructure financing needs [12]. - Commission loans showed no significant change, with a slight increase of 307 billion yuan in December [12]. Monetary Supply and Growth Rates - M1 increased by 3.8% year-on-year in December, with a balance increase of 2.6 trillion yuan, marking the second-highest value since 2019. The decrease in growth rate was primarily due to lower government debt financing and increased government deposits [13][15]. - M2 grew by 8.5% year-on-year, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, driven by accelerated interbank asset expansion and reduced bond issuance drag [15][16]. Future Outlook - For the first quarter of 2026, the main support for corporate credit is expected to come from major projects and policy financial tools stimulating financing demand. However, challenges such as high base effects and the need for balanced credit allocation may lead to a neutral year-on-year performance [5][17]. - The central bank has introduced a series of structural monetary policy tools, including a 25 basis point reduction in structural tool rates, aimed at enhancing the attractiveness of these tools and supporting credit growth in key areas [19][20].