中金：流动性环境还待改善——12月金融数据点评

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the continued slowdown in social financing growth in December 2025, highlighting the divergence in financing between households and enterprises, with enterprise financing reflecting policy support. The increase in M2 growth is attributed to adjustments in the bank's liability structure rather than asset expansion, and M1 growth is expected to decline further. Inflation has rebounded recently but remains high, with real interest rates not significantly decreasing, which requires improvement in employment and income conditions for households. The outlook for the first half of 2026 suggests a continued slowdown in financial growth [1][5]. Group 1: Social Financing and Loan Data - In December 2025, new social financing amounted to 2.21 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 645.7 billion yuan, with government bonds being the largest drag, down 1.07 trillion yuan year-on-year due to a mismatch in issuance timing [1][2]. - New RMB loans totaled 910 billion yuan in December, a year-on-year decrease of 80 billion yuan, with household loans dropping by 91.6 billion yuan, reflecting weak internal demand, while enterprise loans increased by 1.07 trillion yuan, indicating a marginal rise in financing needs [2][17]. - The M2 year-on-year growth rate increased from 8.0% to 8.5%, primarily due to adjustments in the bank's liability structure, with domestic assets contributing 8.5 percentage points to M2 growth [2][17]. Group 2: Inflation and Real Interest Rates - Despite a recent rebound in inflation, real interest rates have not significantly declined, with the estimated real interest rate on 10-year government bonds rising by approximately 40 basis points in the second half of 2025 [3][11]. - The relationship between inflation expectations and actual inflation is weak, with historical data showing limited responsiveness of inflation expectations during low inflation periods [4][13]. - The improvement in inflation expectations is more closely related to employment conditions, indicating that a substantial decline in real interest rates and a loosening liquidity environment depend on improvements in household employment and income [4][14]. Group 3: Outlook for 2026 - The financial growth rate is expected to continue slowing in the first half of 2026, influenced by the expansion of government debt and a low base in 2024. Fiscal policy is anticipated to focus more on quality and efficiency rather than a significant increase in total volume [5][12]. - The implied interest rate cut expectations in the derivatives market have significantly adjusted compared to early 2025, reflecting a shift in monetary policy stance [5][12].