【招商电子】台积电25Q4跟踪报告：26年资本开支指引大超预期，上修24-29年AI芯片增速

Core Viewpoint - TSMC's Q4 2025 financial results exceeded guidance, driven by improved capacity utilization and cost optimization, indicating strong demand for advanced process technologies [1][11]. Financial Performance - Q4 2025 revenue reached $33.73 billion, surpassing the guidance range of $32.2-33.4 billion, with a year-over-year increase of 25.5% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 1.9% [1]. - Gross margin was 62.3%, up 3.3 percentage points year-over-year and 2.8 percentage points quarter-over-quarter, attributed to cost optimization and favorable exchange rates [1][11]. - GAAP net profit was $16.37 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 34.98% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 11.82% [1]. - For the full year 2025, revenue was $122 billion, a 35.9% year-over-year increase, with a gross margin of 59.9% [1][12]. Advanced Process Technology - Advanced process nodes (3nm, 5nm, 7nm) accounted for 77% of revenue, with 3nm contributing 28%, 5nm 35%, and 7nm 14% [2][11]. - High-Performance Computing (HPC) revenue was $18.55 billion, slightly down 1.67% quarter-over-quarter, while smartphone revenue increased by 8.7% to $10.79 billion [2][12]. Future Guidance - For Q1 2026, TSMC expects revenue between $34.6 billion and $35.8 billion, with a year-over-year increase of 38.6% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 7.3% [3]. - Gross margin is projected to be between 63% and 65%, with potential dilution from overseas expansion and the ramp-up of 2nm technology expected to impact margins by 2-3% [3][16]. Capital Expenditure and AI Growth - Q4 2025 capital expenditure was $11.51 billion, with a full-year capex of $40.9 billion, and 2026 capex is expected to be between $52 billion and $56 billion [4][17]. - AI-related revenue is projected to account for 15% of total revenue in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for AI accelerator business expected to be 55-59% from 2024 to 2029 [4][19]. Global Manufacturing Expansion - TSMC is expanding its manufacturing footprint in Arizona, with plans for multiple fabs to meet strong demand, particularly in AI and HPC applications [20][21]. - The company is also establishing special process fabs in Japan and Germany, with ongoing investments in Taiwan to enhance advanced process capabilities [22][23]. Technology Development - The 2nm process is set to begin volume production in late 2026, with expectations for significant revenue contributions [23][33]. - TSMC is also introducing N2P technology, an extension of the 2nm series, aimed at optimizing performance and power consumption [23]. Customer Demand and Market Outlook - TSMC's customers, particularly in AI, are signaling strong demand for increased capacity, with ongoing efforts to address supply constraints [24][30]. - The company remains confident in the sustainability of semiconductor demand driven by AI and other high-performance applications [19][34].