Core Viewpoint - The rebound in consumer data for November is expected due to the convergence of tariff policies and government shutdown impacts, aligning with the traditional consumption peak season [5][6] - The retail sales growth rate for November was recorded at +0.6%, surpassing the market expectation of +0.4% [6] Economic Outlook - Three reasons support a positive outlook for the first quarter of 2026 U.S. economic data: 1. The impact of government shutdown on the economy may lead to a low base effect, benefiting GDP growth in Q1 2026 2. The IRS will initiate concentrated tax refunds in Q1 2026, potentially boosting GDP growth by 0.2-0.3 percentage points 3. The probability of another government shutdown at the end of January is currently estimated at 30%, considered a low probability event [5][7] Interest Rate Outlook - The company maintains the view that the pace of interest rate cuts will be delayed, with the Federal Reserve remaining cautious in the short term. The pace of cuts may accelerate after the new Federal Reserve Chair takes office [5][7]
【宏观】消费反弹，美国一季度经济继续偏强——2025年11月美国零售数据点评（赵格格/周欣平）
光大证券研究·2026-01-15 23:04