【广发宏观钟林楠】货币弹性下降，定价矛盾切换：2026年流动性环境展望

Group 1 - The monetary policy in 2025 is expected to be moderately loose, with lower rates of cuts compared to 2023-2024, primarily focused in the second quarter due to external shocks and a combination of resilient exports, proactive fiscal policy, and industrial highlights enhancing growth resilience [1][11][12] - Structural tools have formed a framework to support key areas such as consumption and real estate, with a focus on optimization in 2026, including streamlining the number of tools and expanding counterparties to include non-bank institutions [15][16] - The policy framework is shifting towards interest rate regulation, with a focus on narrowing the width of the short-term interest rate corridor, which currently has a width exceeding 200 basis points [2][18][19] Group 2 - Narrowing the interest rate corridor is expected to stabilize liquidity expectations and reduce short-term interest rate volatility, which is crucial for improving the interest rate transmission mechanism [20][21] - The narrow liquidity in 2025 is projected to gradually loosen after the first quarter, with potential tightening risks due to credit exceeding acceptable levels and unexpected exchange rate fluctuations [23][24] - The systemic convergence of narrow liquidity fluctuations since 2016 is attributed to increased exchange rate marketization and changes in intermediary targets, leading to a more stable monetary supply [26][27] Group 3 - In 2025, the growth of M1 is expected to increase by 3.6 percentage points, driven mainly by fiscal expansion and overseas net income, although the micro-level activation of funds remains limited [32][33] - The growth of M2 is projected to rise by 0.7 percentage points in 2025, supported by fiscal expansion and a decrease in bond issuance, but may slow down in 2026 due to uncertainties in the banking sector [42][43] - The total amount of remaining liquidity is expected to increase by approximately 0.7 trillion yuan in 2025, primarily flowing into private equity funds and fixed-income assets, but significant expansion in 2026 is unlikely [45][48][49]