国泰海通｜宏观：M2增速反弹：哪些驱动力——2025年12月金融数据点评

Core Viewpoint - The positive signals in December's financial data stem from improvements in corporate loans and M2 growth, while the sustainability of credit expansion remains a key concern for future assessments [1][4]. Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In December, the social financing growth rate fell to 8.3% from 8.5% in November, primarily due to a significant decline in net financing of government bonds year-on-year [2]. - The positive signals are attributed to an increase in corporate loans and M2 growth, with corporate medium and long-term loans increasing by 290 billion [3]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Market Impact - The new policy financial tools have begun to show their effect on corporate loans, with M1 and M2 performing well, where M1 increased by 2.6 trillion month-on-month [3]. - The People's Bank of China announced eight structural monetary policy tools aimed at optimizing policies, including a 0.25 percentage point reduction in various structural monetary policy tool rates, emphasizing targeted support and structural optimization rather than broad monetary easing [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The improvement in corporate loans and M2 is primarily driven by policy and seasonal factors, with a short-term acceleration in household asset allocation supporting liquidity [4]. - The ability of credit expansion to sustain itself will be crucial for future assessments of risk appetite and asset performance [4].