白银狂欢暂歇，特朗普暂未对关键矿产征关税，现货银价一度跌超7%后V字反弹

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration has decided to temporarily refrain from imposing comprehensive tariffs on key minerals, including silver and platinum, opting instead for bilateral negotiations and considering price floor measures [3][11][12]. Group 1: Market Reactions and Implications - The decision has significantly alleviated market concerns regarding comprehensive tariff measures, which previously led to a substantial amount of silver inventory remaining in U.S. warehouses, contributing to a global short squeeze expected in 2025 [4][17]. - Following the announcement, silver prices experienced volatility, with a notable drop after reaching historical highs, reflecting a cumulative increase of over 20% in the first four trading days of the year and over 10% year-to-date [6][24]. - Analysts from Citigroup suggest that the U.S. reliance on imported silver makes a tariff unlikely, and the absence of tariffs could lead to a temporary price correction as metals flow out of the U.S. to alleviate global market tensions [5][18]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current market for silver is characterized by a severe physical shortage outside the U.S., which could be exacerbated by the potential outflow of silver from U.S. warehouses, currently holding approximately 434 million ounces, an increase of about 100 million ounces from the previous year [17][18]. - The industrial demand for silver, particularly from the solar energy sector, alongside a shift in investor interest from gold to silver due to rising gold prices, has contributed to silver's strong performance, with a nearly 150% increase last year [24][25]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Analyst Sentiments - Despite short-term volatility, Wall Street analysts maintain a positive medium-term outlook for silver, supported by supply gaps, industrial consumption, and spillover demand from gold [5][26]. - Analysts from MUFG note that the lack of immediate tariffs has alleviated supply concerns, allowing the market to reassess recent price pressures and profit-taking opportunities [26].