热点思考|新年第一会，谁在抢跑？（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the early meetings held by various regions after New Year's Day to outline key work for the year, highlighting differences in regional focus and potential economic space in early 2026 [1]. Group 1: Central Government Initiatives - The central government has increased investment ahead of schedule, with the National Development and Reform Commission issuing a list of early construction projects for 2026, totaling 295 billion yuan, an increase of 95 billion yuan compared to 2025 [2][9]. - The "two heavy" projects will receive 220 billion yuan, focusing on urban underground pipelines and high-standard farmland, while central budget investments exceed 75 billion yuan, targeting urban renewal and water conservancy [2][9]. - The "old-for-new" policy has been refined, with the first batch of 62.5 billion yuan in special bonds issued 10 days earlier than in 2025, supporting consumer goods replacement [2][12]. Group 2: Local Government Responses - Many regions have moved their "New Year First Meetings" to after New Year's Day, emphasizing early initiation of key work for the year, contrasting with 2025 when most meetings were held after the Spring Festival [4][16]. - Regions like Shanghai and Fujian focus on optimizing the business environment and boosting confidence in the private economy, with specific measures to eliminate market entry barriers and address overdue payments [4][19]. - Core cities such as Hubei, Nanjing, and Suzhou are concentrating on cultivating new productivity, while Zhejiang and Henan are focusing on stabilizing investment to support growth [4][19]. Group 3: Economic Potential and Tracking Indicators - The postponement of the Spring Festival by 19 days in 2026 creates a pattern of "heavy production and investment in January, heavy consumption in February," aligning with the central government's emphasis on early economic work [5][22]. - Since 2019, the proportion of actual GDP in the first quarter has increased by an average of 0.1 percentage points annually, indicating the importance of early economic performance [5][26]. - The fiscal front is accelerating, with local government debt issuance in January expected to increase by approximately 340 billion yuan compared to the previous year, with 24 provinces planning to issue 257.78 billion yuan in new debt [7][35].