台积电：硅基话语权的巅峰

Core Viewpoint - TSMC's recent financial report signifies not just growth but a transformative era driven by AI, marking the onset of the fourth industrial revolution [5][21]. Financial Performance - TSMC reported a net profit of NT$505.7 billion, exceeding expectations of NT$467 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 35% [7]. - The gross margin reached 62.3%, surpassing the anticipated ceiling of 60.6% [8]. - For Q1 2026, TSMC's revenue guidance is set between $34.6 billion and $35.8 billion, significantly above the expected $33.22 billion [15]. - The gross margin guidance for Q1 2026 is projected at 63%-65%, outpacing market expectations of 59.6% [16]. - Capital expenditures for 2026 are expected to reach $52 billion to $56 billion, far exceeding the previous year's $40.9 billion and market expectations of $46 billion [17]. AI and Technology Leadership - TSMC's advanced 3nm, 5nm, and 7nm processes contributed 77% of total revenue, with 3nm and 5nm alone accounting for 63% [12]. - The company anticipates a nearly 30% growth in revenue in 2026, surpassing the 25% market expectation, with a five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25% starting in 2024 [24]. - TSMC has raised its CAGR forecast for AI accelerators from 45% to a range of 55%-59% for 2024-2029, indicating a robust growth trajectory [26]. Advanced Packaging Technologies - CoWoS (Chip-on-Wafer-on-Substrate) is TSMC's proprietary advanced packaging technology, with expected monthly production capacity reaching 115,000 pieces by the end of 2026 [30]. - The demand for CoWoS is so high that it has created an overflow capacity of approximately 15,000 pieces per month, benefiting other packaging companies [32]. - CoWoP (Chip-on-Wafer-on-PCB) is a revolutionary technology that bypasses the capacity constraints of ABF substrates, simplifying structure and reducing costs [37][38]. Global Expansion Strategy - TSMC is executing an unprecedented global factory expansion plan, with key sites in Taiwan, the USA, Japan, and Germany, to meet demand and strategically position itself in the geopolitical landscape [58][59][60][61]. - The company is establishing a 2nm core base in Hsinchu and Kaohsiung, which will serve as the heart of its operations [59]. Conclusion - TSMC is not merely a semiconductor company; it is a pivotal player in the evolution of technology and the AI revolution, shaping the future of the global digital economy [63].