电子行业2026年展望：重AI投资组合仍然有效

Core Viewpoint - The global market experienced a decline followed by a recovery in 2025, with the domestic electronics sector outperforming, rising by 45.9% and surpassing the CSI 300 index by 29.5 percentage points, driven primarily by China's high-tech industry, particularly in AI and AI semiconductor sectors [4]. 2025 Industry Dynamics - AI demand remains strong, with NVIDIA's new generation cabinet shipments showing a recovery trend, and North American cloud providers maintaining high year-on-year capital expenditure. Non-AI sectors have also seen a recovery, with smartphone and PC shipments increasing year-on-year in the first three quarters. The semiconductor market is supported by AI logic and storage chip demand, with monthly sales maintaining high year-on-year growth [4]. - The logic chip sector is experiencing robust demand for high-end GPUs and ASICs, leading to record performance for TSMC. The storage chip market is entering a super cycle driven by rapid growth in AI data center storage demand, affecting HBM, DRAM, and NAND markets [4]. 2026 Outlook: AI Chain - The AI industry chain is expected to maintain an optimistic outlook, supported by high year-on-year growth in capital expenditure from North American cloud providers and NVIDIA's accelerated shipments post-first quarter challenges. Key factors include the successful production of the GB300 cabinet and the positive performance of Gemini 3 and TPU, which reduce reliance on GPUs and offer cost-effective alternatives [5]. - Concerns about an AI bubble are premature, as supply chain bottlenecks in advanced process chips and critical components persist. However, high expectations may lead to volatility, necessitating close monitoring of TSMC's CoWoS orders, AI server upgrades, NVIDIA's inventory levels, and data center construction progress [5]. 2026 Outlook: Non-AI Chain - For non-AI applications, while the worst period appears to be over, there are no clear drivers for significant improvement. The overall market may experience low volatility and weak recovery, with rising costs from upstream components potentially impacting product prices and demand. Caution is advised, but lower expectations may lead to demand exceeding forecasts in areas like AI smartphones, edge AI, and automotive intelligence [6]. - Upstream component manufacturers may benefit from ongoing AI demand and rising raw material prices, potentially leading to a price increase cycle for related products [6].