Super Micro Computer(US:SMCI) 美股研究社·2026-01-16 12:34Core Viewpoint - Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) has seen a significant stock price decline of 45% since the last bullish call by analysts, yet analysts continue to increase their positions due to the stock's extremely low valuation, with a Forward PEG Ratio of 0.48 compared to the industry average of 1.71, indicating a lack of fundamental support for such a discount [1][2]. Financial Performance and Expectations - SMCI is expected to report quarterly revenue of $10.3 billion on February 3, indicating a strong year-over-year growth of 82%, despite previous struggles with revenue growth and profitability [3]. - Management has provided reasonable explanations for past revenue shortfalls, including a $1.5 billion revenue shift from Q1 to Q2 due to last-minute configuration upgrades by customers, and a backlog of $13 billion for the GB300 product line based on NVIDIA's Blackwell Ultra [3][4]. Innovation and Market Position - SMCI is actively innovating to stand out in the competitive AI server market, with a focus on expanding its product offerings in edge AI through partnerships with Intel and AMD, thus avoiding reliance on a single supplier [5]. - The edge AI market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 37% by 2030, presenting opportunities for SMCI to gain pricing power and improve its business mix [5]. Valuation Analysis - SMCI's Forward P/E Ratio is projected to significantly drop below 10x in the coming years, positioning the company favorably to capitalize on the AI trend, with the industry median non-GAAP P/E at 26x highlighting SMCI's substantial discount [7]. - The expected price-to-sales ratio for SMCI is as low as 0.5x, which is over seven times lower than the industry median, indicating a significant undervaluation [9][10]. Strategic Partnerships and Growth Areas - SMCI is expanding its presence in smart in-store retail solutions, which have strong potential due to various use cases such as optimizing employee efficiency and real-time inventory tracking, potentially leading to new recurring revenue streams [5]. Conclusion - Despite recent disappointing earnings, SMCI remains a key player in the AI revolution and is well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing data center construction boom, making it a strong buy due to its attractive valuation [15].