全球大涨后，2026年资产配置的逻辑变了吗？

Core Viewpoint - The investment landscape for 2025 has shown that A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and gold have performed well among global asset classes, while Chinese bonds and US stocks have underperformed compared to previous years [5]. Group 1: Market Performance and Predictions - The market environment heading into 2026 remains challenging, with significant asset price increases in the past year suggesting potential for increased volatility in the future [7]. - Various international asset management institutions have adjusted their long-term return expectations for different asset classes, providing a reference for asset allocation [7][11]. - The long-term expected returns for US stocks are projected to be between 3.1% and 6.7% over the next 7-15 years, reflecting a downward adjustment from previous forecasts [15][18]. Group 2: Asset Class Outlook - Morningstar remains optimistic about the long-term performance of emerging market stocks, particularly in China, despite a slight reduction in return expectations following last year's gains [19]. - The narrowing return expectation gap between US stocks and US bonds indicates that bonds may outperform stocks in the coming decade, according to estimates from Vanguard and other institutions [24]. - The long-term expected returns for different asset classes are based on stable models and research frameworks, which provide more consistent results compared to short-term market predictions [13][27]. Group 3: Impact on Investment Strategy - High-yield assets are becoming increasingly scarce, prompting investors to adopt a more objective and rational view of market changes and to lower return expectations [29]. - The close alignment of long-term expected returns between US stocks and bonds suggests that investors with lower risk tolerance may benefit from reallocating some equity positions to higher-rated US bonds without significantly sacrificing long-term returns [30]. - Continuous monitoring and dynamic adjustment of asset allocation are essential to optimize the risk-return structure of investment portfolios [31][32].