硬AI·2026-01-16 14:06Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by Apple as the leading customer of TSMC, particularly due to the rising demand for advanced packaging capacity from competitors like NVIDIA and AMD, which has led to significant price increases and a shift in the semiconductor supply chain dynamics [1][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - NVIDIA has likely surpassed Apple as TSMC's largest revenue source for at least one to two quarters last year, with a full overtaking expected by 2026 [5]. - TSMC's revenue grew by 36% to $122 billion last year, while NVIDIA's sales are projected to soar by 62% in the fiscal year ending January 2026, contrasting with Apple's expected growth of only 3.6% [4][5]. - The high-performance computing (HPC) segment, including AI chips, has become a new growth driver for TSMC, with revenue in this area increasing by 48% last year [4]. Group 2: Financial Performance - TSMC's gross margin has reached an impressive 62.3%, nearing levels typical of software companies, indicating strong pricing power and profitability [2][7]. - TSMC's capital expenditures are expected to rise by about 32%, reaching a record $52 to $56 billion, while average growth in revenue is projected at 25% over the next five years, with AI business growth expected to average 55% or higher [7]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The evolving technology roadmap appears to favor NVIDIA and AMD, suggesting that Apple will need to compete for capacity in the near term [9]. - TSMC's most advanced 2nm process is currently in production, with Apple as a major buyer, but upcoming nodes are expected to focus more on HPC needs, which may disadvantage Apple [10][12]. - Despite the challenges, Apple's broad product line across multiple TSMC fabs provides a level of stability that is still valuable to TSMC, especially when compared to the more concentrated demand from AI chip manufacturers [18].