涨停开局、跌停收尾：碳酸锂本周高位震荡

Core Viewpoint - High volatility in lithium carbonate prices may become the new normal due to fluctuating demand and supply dynamics, alongside regulatory changes impacting trading behavior [2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Lithium carbonate experienced extreme fluctuations this week, starting with a price surge followed by a significant drop, indicating a rapid withdrawal of funds and a decrease in positions [3][4]. - The market initially focused on demand driven by export opportunities and inventory replenishment, but later shifted attention to seasonal demand weakness and ongoing supply pressures [4][5]. - The price of lithium carbonate reached a peak of 156,060 yuan/ton, marking a 9% increase, attributed to the announcement of reduced export tax rebates [5][6]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - The Chinese government announced a reduction in the export value-added tax rebate for batteries, which is expected to influence upstream lithium demand as battery manufacturers rush to fulfill overseas orders [6][7]. - Despite the price increase, supply remained stable, with lithium carbonate production rising by 70 tons to 22,605 tons, indicating no significant contraction in supply [14][15]. - Seasonal demand is expected to weaken, with production of ternary materials projected to decrease by 5% and lithium iron phosphate by 10% [18][19]. Group 3: Regulatory Impact - New regulations on battery recycling are set to be implemented in April 2026, aiming to enhance the management and traceability of used batteries, which may influence long-term resource dynamics in the lithium market [22][23]. - The anticipated increase in waste battery generation by 2030, projected to exceed 1 million tons, could shift market perceptions regarding lithium resource scarcity [24][25]. - The ongoing policy and supply-demand fluctuations are leading to greater market volatility as the industry transitions between old and new resource management paradigms [26].