渗透率超50%！电动重卡12月销量破4.5万辆！2026市场被透支？| 光耀评车

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the rapid growth of the new energy heavy truck market, projecting sales to soar from 82,000 units in 2024 to over 200,000 units in 2025, marking a significant shift in the commercial vehicle sector [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - In December 2025, the monthly sales of new energy heavy trucks exceeded 45,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 198%, with a domestic penetration rate surpassing 50% at 53.9% [3][9] - The sales surge in December was driven by dual policy incentives, leading to a record-breaking monthly sales figure that significantly exceeded the previous record of 28,000 units in November 2025 [5][10] - The total sales for new energy heavy trucks in 2025 reached 231,000 units, a year-on-year growth of 182%, with an annual penetration rate of 28.9%, more than double the previous year's rate of 13.6% [10] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The unprecedented sales figures in December are attributed to irrational consumer behavior and a significant advance purchase effect due to expiring policies, which may lead to a demand shortfall in 2026 [7][12] - The high sales volume in the fourth quarter of 2025 accounted for 40% of the annual sales, indicating a potential decline in sales for the first quarter of 2026, raising concerns about whether sales can match the previous year's levels [12][14] - The new energy heavy trucks now represent 25-30% of the total monthly sales in the heavy truck market, suggesting that the demand pressure from 2025 will impact the entire heavy truck industry in 2026 [14]