热点思考|新年第一会，谁在抢跑？（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the early meetings held by various regions after the New Year, focusing on their different priorities for the year ahead and the potential economic space in early 2026, providing insights for tracking and assessment [1]. Group 1: Central Government Initiatives - The central government has increased investment ahead of schedule, with the National Development and Reform Commission issuing a list of early construction projects for 2026, totaling 295 billion yuan, an increase of 95 billion yuan compared to 2025 [2][9]. - The "two heavy" projects will receive 220 billion yuan, focusing on urban underground pipelines and high-standard farmland, while central budget investments exceed 75 billion yuan, targeting urban renewal and water conservancy [2][9]. - The "old-for-new" policy has been refined, with the first batch of 62.5 billion yuan in special long-term bonds issued to support this initiative, with changes in subsidy structures for automobiles and home appliances [3][12]. Group 2: Local Government Responses - Many regions have moved their "New Year First Meetings" to after New Year's Day, emphasizing early initiation of key work for the year, contrasting with 2025 when most meetings were held after the Spring Festival [4][16]. - Regions like Shanghai and Fujian focus on optimizing the business environment and boosting confidence in the private economy, with specific measures to eliminate market entry barriers and address overdue payments [19][20]. - Core cities such as Hubei, Nanjing, and Suzhou are concentrating on cultivating new productivity, while Zhejiang and Henan are focusing on stabilizing investment to support growth [21][46]. Group 3: Economic Potential and Tracking Indicators - The postponement of the Spring Festival by 19 days in 2026 creates a pattern of "heavy production and investment in January, heavy consumption in February," aligning with the central government's emphasis on early economic stability [5][22]. - Since 2019, the proportion of actual GDP in the first quarter has increased annually by 0.1 percentage points, highlighting the importance of early economic performance [26]. - Local government debt issuance plans indicate a potential increase of approximately 340 billion yuan in January 2026 compared to the previous year, with 257.78 billion yuan planned for issuance [35][41].