中金研究 | 本周精选：宏观、策略、银行

Macroeconomy - The argument that the Chinese yuan is significantly undervalued based on the price of McDonald's hamburgers in China compared to the US is misleading. This perspective relies on the absolute purchasing power parity theory, which does not adequately account for asset price factors and misrepresents the nature of McDonald's pricing as a potentially non-tradable good [3]. Strategy - A-share market has seen a significant rise with a 16-day consecutive increase, reaching new highs, while the Hong Kong stock market has lagged behind, with the Hang Seng Tech Index experiencing a 20% decline since last October. The divergence raises questions about whether A-shares or Hong Kong stocks are mispriced, and the potential for a catch-up rally in Hong Kong stocks remains uncertain [6]. Industry - The narrative surrounding the trend of "deposit migration" has resurfaced, particularly with a large volume of deposits maturing. Common misconceptions about the implications of these maturing deposits and their actual flow are addressed, clarifying seven prevalent market misunderstandings [8]. Strategy - As the peak period for annual report previews approaches, the A-share market has shown a notable upward trend, with improved trading sentiment. Approximately 1.8% of A-share companies have disclosed their annual report forecasts, indicating potential sectors and companies that may exceed performance expectations [10]. Monetary Policy - The central bank's recent decision to lower various structural monetary policy tool rates by 0.25 percentage points reflects a commitment to maintaining moderate monetary easing while emphasizing structural adjustments. This aligns with the broader economic policy focus on quality and efficiency, amidst stable external demand [12].