宋雪涛：今年市场的两条主线

Core Viewpoint - The main pricing themes for A-shares in 2026 are centered around AI and geopolitical factors, reflecting the U.S. focus on technology for growth and geopolitical selection, while another theme that has not been fully priced in is "anti-involution," corresponding to China's pursuit of reform for momentum [2][9]. Market Performance - Since the beginning of 2026, the A-share market has shown a "good start" with a cumulative increase of 5.2% in the Wind All A index and an average daily trading volume exceeding 3 trillion yuan. The Sci-Tech 50, CSI 500, and National 2000 indices have led the gains with increases of 11.9%, 11.3%, and 9.6% respectively, indicating that technology and small-cap stocks are outperforming large-cap stocks [4]. - The leading sectors include media, computer, non-ferrous metals, and military industries, with year-to-date increases of 16.0%, 14.0%, 14.0%, and 9.0% respectively, reflecting the current market's focus on "AI and geopolitics" [4]. AI Impact on Economy - AI's influence is evident in both the A-share market trends and marginal changes in the macro economy. In December 2025, China's PPI rose by 0.2% month-on-month, marking the highest monthly increase since 2024, with AI contributing to improvements in PPI, particularly in non-ferrous and technology sectors [6][9]. - In December 2025, prices in the non-ferrous metal mining and smelting industries increased by 3.7% and 2.8% respectively, driven by AI-related electricity demand, which significantly boosted prices of metals like copper, silver, tungsten, tantalum, aluminum, lithium, cobalt, and nickel [6]. Pricing Dynamics - In December 2025, prices for external storage devices and integrated circuits rose by 15.3% and 2.4% respectively, with AI-related high-end chips occupying advanced process resources, leading to structural tensions in chip availability. Samsung and SK Hynix plan to raise server DRAM prices by 60%-70% in Q1 2026, significantly higher than previous cycles [8]. - The implementation of "anti-involution" has also contributed to the month-on-month recovery of PPI, with lithium-ion battery manufacturing prices increasing by 1.0% and the price of complete new energy vehicles turning from a decline of 0.2% to an increase of 0.1% [8]. Strategic Choices - The improvement in PPI reflects strategic choices made by China and the U.S. in the current global macro context, which are expected to become the two main pricing themes for A-shares in 2026. The "AI and geopolitics" theme corresponds to the U.S. seeking new productive forces in a stagflation environment, while the "anti-involution" theme aligns with China's push for reform to drive momentum through fiscal and income distribution reforms [9]. Anti-Involution Developments - The "anti-involution" theme is entering a new phase in 2026, as highlighted by recent policy discussions emphasizing the need to address malicious low-price dumping and promote healthy competition [10]. - The core of "anti-involution" in the industry is "quality over price," with regulatory bodies emphasizing compliance in price competition within the photovoltaic industry and addressing irrational competition behaviors [11]. - Recent policy changes, such as the cancellation of export tax rebates for photovoltaic products, reflect the national-level commitment to "anti-involution," allowing leading companies to raise prices to absorb costs and redirect funds to domestic consumption [12][13]. Regulatory Environment - Strengthened anti-monopoly and anti-unfair competition regulations signal an acceleration of "anti-involution," with the market regulator engaging with leading companies in the silicon material and photovoltaic sectors to prevent collusion and ensure fair competition [14].