被低估的芯片

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor market is expected to reach between $1 trillion and $1.1 trillion by 2030, driven primarily by the rapid development of artificial intelligence and data centers. However, this may underestimate the industry's true value due to traditional valuation methods that focus on sales and overlook the contributions of companies with internal design capabilities and advanced packaging technologies [1][2]. Market Size Reevaluation - Analysts have historically measured semiconductor market size based on sales from foundries and integrated device manufacturers (IDMs) to electronics companies. This method is becoming less accurate as growth shifts towards self-designed chip manufacturers and OEMs with internal design capabilities, particularly in China, where traditional methods fail to capture their contributions [5][6]. Growth Projections - McKinsey's analysis predicts semiconductor sales will reach $1.6 trillion by 2030, significantly higher than other forecasts. The growth will be concentrated in advanced chips and high-bandwidth memory (HBM), with a few innovative companies likely capturing the majority of market share [2][19]. Sector-Specific Growth - The semiconductor market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13% from 2024 to 2030, with significant disparities across sectors. Advanced process nodes are expected to see a CAGR of 22%, while traditional nodes will grow at only 2% to 4% [28][29]. Leading Market Segments - By 2030, the leading segments will include computing and data storage, wireless communication, and automotive. The computing and data storage sector is expected to grow from $350 billion in 2024 to $810 billion by 2030, driven by demand for AI servers [25][26]. Strategic Recommendations - Companies in the semiconductor industry should focus on innovation and differentiation, particularly in the advanced chip and HBM markets, to maximize market share and profitability. Those in lower-growth areas should enhance performance and consider strategic mergers and acquisitions to remain competitive [34][38].