是说芯语·2026-01-17 02:30Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the shifting dynamics in the semiconductor industry, particularly the growing dominance of Nvidia in the AI sector, which poses a threat to Apple's status as TSMC's top customer [1][3]. Group 1: TSMC and Apple Relationship - TSMC's CEO, C.C. Wei, informed Apple CEO Tim Cook during a visit in August 2025 that Apple must accept significant price increases and will no longer have priority in production capacity [1]. - Apple's revenue growth is projected at only 3.6%, while Nvidia's revenue is expected to surge by 62% [3]. Group 2: AI Chip Demand and Market Trends - The demand for AI chips is skyrocketing, with Nvidia and AMD's GPUs occupying a substantial portion of wafer space, limiting Apple's chip production [3]. - TSMC forecasts that the average annual growth rate for the AI sector will exceed 55% over the next five years, significantly outpacing the company's overall growth [5]. Group 3: TSMC's Strategic Focus - TSMC's technology roadmap is increasingly oriented towards AI, prioritizing advanced process technologies for AI chip manufacturers like Nvidia over mobile device applications [7]. - TSMC plans to increase its capital expenditure to a historical high of $52 billion to $56 billion in 2026, despite concerns about the pace of expansion [9]. Group 4: Risks and Stability - TSMC faces significant depreciation risks, accounting for 45% of its revenue costs, which could lead to financial strain if the AI market experiences a downturn [9]. - Despite the current momentum of Nvidia, Apple remains a crucial and stable partner for TSMC over the next decade due to its broad product line and risk resilience [9].