12月M2同比抬升的原因及影响——12月金融数据点评

Core Viewpoints - The current liquidity assessment indicates that overall liquidity remains relatively ample, supporting financial asset valuations, despite a decline in M1 and a significant drop in enterprise deposits [3][4][12] - Future liquidity is expected to face challenges due to a decrease in interbank certificates of deposit and rising loan bases, leading to a forecasted decline in M2 growth in the first quarter of 2026 [4][5] - The current monetary policy focuses on structural adjustments and timing, with an emphasis on stimulating investment in supported sectors while controlling capacity expansion in weaker demand areas [8][36][38] Group 1: Reasons for M2 Year-on-Year Growth - M2 increased by 8.5% year-on-year in December, with a monthly addition of 3.3 trillion yuan, driven by a narrowing drag from other factors and an increase in bank claims on non-financial institutions [14][15][44] - The narrowing drag from other factors is attributed to a decrease in bond issuance and a return of funds to the non-bank sector due to the maturity of interbank certificates of deposit [18][19] - The growth in bank claims on non-financial institutions is primarily from increased loans to enterprises, but this growth is expected to be unsustainable due to high base effects and weak demand [25][40] Group 2: Reasons for M1 Year-on-Year Decline - The new M1 decreased by 3.8% year-on-year in December, primarily due to a decline in the old M1, while household demand for current deposits remained stable [28][31] Group 3: Impact of December Financial Data on Liquidity Assessment - The ratio of new household deposits to new M2 remains low, indicating overall macro liquidity is still relatively ample, but there is a potential shift from real to virtual assets as enterprise deposits decline [12][32] - The increase in non-bank deposits aligns with a surge in equity market transactions, while the drop in enterprise deposits may negatively impact expectations for economic recovery [12][32] - The December M2 increase is seen as a short-term fluctuation, with a high probability of M2 decline in the first quarter of 2026, suggesting a potential marginal decrease in overall macro liquidity [12][32] Group 4: Information from the National New Office Meeting - The meeting outlined eight monetary policies to support the real economy, including a 0.25 percentage point reduction in various structural monetary policy tool rates and increased loan quotas for small and private enterprises [36][37] - The focus is on structural adjustments, with the central bank aiming to stimulate investment in supported sectors while managing supply in weaker demand areas [36][38]