消费与科技不是“谁主谁次”，而是“共生共荣”｜宏观经济

Core Viewpoint - Consumption and technology are interdependent and should not be viewed as mutually exclusive; without consumer demand, technological innovation lacks sustainability and market value [2][4]. Group 1: Economic Growth and Innovation - Many people instinctively emphasize "technological innovation" as the core driver of economic growth, influenced by narratives around breakthroughs in chips, AI, and new energy [4]. - In 2024, China's total R&D expenditure is expected to exceed 4 trillion yuan, accounting for 2.8% of GDP, with the number of patents in fields like new energy vehicles and AI ranking first globally [4]. - However, technology that is detached from consumer demand often fails to achieve market success, as seen in cases where companies invested heavily in R&D but faced low order volumes due to weak consumer demand [4][5]. Group 2: Consumer Demand and R&D Investment - Over 70% of R&D investment in China comes from enterprises, which directly depends on their revenue situation; in 2024, the growth rate of retail sales of consumer goods is projected to be only 3.5% [5][7]. - The decline in consumer spending has led to a reduction in R&D budgets for many companies, with some cutting their innovation budgets by half due to lower sales [7]. - Consumer demand is crucial as it serves as both the endpoint of economic circulation and the source of funding for technological innovation [7]. Group 3: Policy Implications - Current policies tend to favor technological innovation over consumer stimulation, leading to an imbalance; while tax incentives for tech firms are increasing, consumer stimulus measures remain superficial [8]. - In 2024, the technology conversion rate in China is only about 30%, significantly lower than the 60%-70% seen in developed countries, indicating a gap in market acceptance of innovations [8]. Group 4: The Symbiotic Relationship Between Consumption and Technology - The relationship between consumption and technology is cyclical, akin to the "chicken and egg" scenario; successful technological advancements often depend on a robust consumer market [9][10]. - For China, while exports of "new three items" (likely referring to new energy vehicles, electronics, etc.) are growing, a weak domestic consumer market could lead to wasted production capacity and increased operational pressures on companies [10]. - To address these challenges, a dual approach is necessary: supporting technological innovation while also expanding domestic demand through job stability and income growth [10][11].