金属狂欢退潮，谁在裸泳？商品市场的警钟为谁而鸣？

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article discusses the recent volatility in tin prices, suggesting that the surge was primarily driven by speculative capital rather than fundamental supply-demand dynamics [2][3][6] - Historical context is provided, comparing the current tin price surge to a previous bubble from late 2021 to 2022, where prices peaked due to geopolitical tensions and speculative trading, followed by a significant crash [3][5] - Current signals indicate that risks are accumulating in the tin market, with signs of weakening demand and regulatory measures aimed at cooling speculative trading [6][7] Group 2 - The article highlights the recent regulatory changes in trading rules for lithium carbonate, which have led to a significant drop in trading volume and a retreat of speculative funds from the market [9][11] - Internal market pressures are noted, including a rapid price increase of over 30% in a short period, leading to profit-taking among investors and a reassessment of the fundamental supply-demand situation [12] - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring key technical levels and fundamental indicators to gauge future price movements in lithium carbonate [12] Group 3 - The article warns of emerging risk signals in the silver market, with recent price adjustments linked to increased margin requirements and changes in market sentiment [15][20] - The article discusses the potential impact of the U.S. 232 investigation on silver, platinum, and palladium, highlighting concerns over import tariffs and their implications for market dynamics [57][61] - The article notes that the silver market is currently facing multiple pressures, including index rebalancing and increased trading costs, which could lead to heightened volatility [62]