在不确定性中求生存，比在确定性中求收益更重要

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of diversification in investment to mitigate risks and avoid significant losses, aligning with Warren Buffett's principle of not losing money [3][10]. Importance of Diversification - Overconfidence is a critical human flaw that can lead to poor investment decisions, as demonstrated by a behavioral finance experiment showing that confidence levels often exceed actual judgment accuracy [4][5]. - The "overconfidence curve" illustrates that as confidence increases, the actual ability to make correct judgments does not improve proportionately, leading to potential overexposure in investments [5]. Misuse of Kelly Criterion - The Kelly Criterion, while a popular method for determining optimal bet sizes, can lead to overestimating success probabilities, especially when applied without known parameters [6]. - Edward Thorp warns that exceeding the recommended bet size can exponentially increase the risk of bankruptcy, highlighting the need for caution in applying theoretical models to real-world scenarios [6]. Uncertainty in Investments - The concept of "unknowns" in investments is crucial, as real-world conditions rarely provide clear probabilities, making it essential to avoid heavy concentration in any single investment [7][9]. - The article discusses the "black swan" events that can disrupt even statistically sound investment strategies, reinforcing the need for a diversified approach to withstand unexpected market movements [8][9]. Conclusion on Diversification - The essence of diversification is to allow time for probabilities to work in favor of the investor, ensuring survival through uncertain times rather than chasing marginal gains in seemingly certain opportunities [10]. - The article concludes that respecting probabilities through adequate diversification is fundamental to successful investing, emphasizing the importance of survival over short-term gains [10].