出口领先指标继续回升——每周经济观察第55期

Economic Outlook - The real estate sales decline is narrowing, with residential sales area in 67 cities down by 23% year-on-year as of January 16, compared to a 33% decline earlier in the month [2] - The OECD composite leading indicator for G7 countries has slightly rebounded to 0.60% in December, indicating potential stabilization or improvement in China's export growth by May [2][25] - Commodity prices are rising, with gold at $4,590 per ounce (up 2.6%) and crude oil prices increasing to $59.4 per barrel (up 0.5%) [2][44] Economic Indicators - The Huachuang macro WEI index has decreased to 5.75% as of January 11, down 0.85 percentage points from the previous week, indicating a decline in economic activity since late September [3][9] - Retail sales of passenger cars have seen a significant decline of 32% year-on-year as of January 11, compared to a 14% decline in December [3][14] - The operating rates in most industries are weaker than the same period last year, with notable declines in construction and industrial production [3][19] Trade and Exports - The OECD leading indicator suggests a potential increase in China's export growth by May, as it typically leads export trends by about five months [25] - China's export volume has shown mixed results, with a decrease in the number of cargo ships to the U.S. by 30.2% year-on-year as of January 17 [27] Prices and Inflation - Commodity prices are generally rising, with significant increases in lithium carbonate prices (up 12.7%) and polysilicon prices (up 7.5%) [44][45] - The average land premium rate in 100 cities has decreased to 1.39% as of January 11, down from 1.64% in December [14] Interest Rates and Bonds - As of January 16, the yields on 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year government bonds are 1.2424%, 1.6099%, and 1.8424%, respectively, reflecting slight declines from the previous week [4][57] - The government is planning to issue 850 billion yuan in new local bonds, including 644 billion yuan in special bonds, to support debt clearance efforts [49][50]