20+图看2025年出口结构

Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the export structure of China in 2025, highlighting the significant contributions from emerging markets and the contrasting performance of developed markets, particularly the U.S. and non-U.S. regions [2][16]. Group 1: Regional Structure Characteristics - Emerging markets are showing significant contributions, while the internal dynamics of developed markets, particularly between the U.S. and non-U.S. regions, are largely offsetting each other [5][17]. - In 2025, the share of exports to emerging markets is projected to be 49.1%, an increase of approximately 2.5 percentage points from 2024. Exports to the U.S. are expected to decline to 11.1%, down about 3.5 percentage points, while exports to non-U.S. developed markets will rise to 39.8%, up about 1 percentage point [17][18]. Group 2: Commodity Structure Characteristics By Usage - Intermediate goods are expected to contribute significantly, while consumer goods are projected to have a negative contribution, and capital goods are expected to remain stable. From 2017 to the first 11 months of 2025, the share of intermediate goods in exports is expected to rise from 41.9% to 47.4%, while consumer goods will decline from 36.6% to 28.7% [6][22]. - The contribution rate of intermediate goods to export growth is expected to increase from 55.8% in 2018 to 85% in 2025, while consumer goods' contribution will drop from 24.7% to -34% [6][22]. By Category - Four types of goods are identified based on economic conditions: 1. Sustained Growth Goods: High export growth over the past two years, including transportation equipment, pharmaceuticals, and machinery [7][25]. 2. Reversal Goods: Poor performance in 2024 but better in 2025, such as non-metallic products and chemicals [7][26]. 3. Weak Sustained Goods: Consistently low growth, including umbrellas and toys [7][26]. 4. Diminishing Momentum Goods: Good performance in 2024 but poor in 2025, including furniture and textiles [7][26]. Group 3: Key Regional Export Commodity Structure - The analysis focuses on the export commodity structure to developed markets (U.S. and Europe) and emerging markets. In 2024, exports to these regions accounted for about 67% of China's total exports [28]. - In the U.S., there is an overall decline, with intermediate goods showing some resilience [29]. - In the EU, intermediate and capital goods are expected to balance each other, while consumer goods will negatively impact growth [35]. - In ASEAN, intermediate goods are expected to see significant growth, while consumer goods will contribute negatively [39]. - In Africa, there is expected to be overall growth, with capital and intermediate goods each contributing about 40% [43]. - In the Middle East, growth is expected to be balanced across all types of goods [49]. - In Latin America, intermediate goods are projected to grow by over 60%, with consumer and capital goods showing slight growth [54]. - In Central Asia (excluding Russia), the contribution of intermediate and capital goods is expected to be 7:4, with consumer goods negatively impacting growth [59].