热点思考 | 美国经济的共识与分歧——基于74家机构调查（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant divergence among major institutions regarding the outlook for the U.S. economy in 2026, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding GDP growth predictions, which range from 0.8% to 2.9% [2][7][75]. Group 1: Disagreements on U.S. Economic Outlook - There is a notable disagreement among 74 research institutions regarding the U.S. GDP growth for 2026, with 65% predicting an increase, 27% forecasting a decline, and 8% expecting stability [2][7][75]. - The main reasons for optimism include fiscal and monetary easing, while concerns revolve around tariffs, inflation, employment, and fiscal debt [2][13][75]. - The most significant divergence is observed in fiscal policy assessments, with a total of 26 mentions and a bullish-to-bearish ratio of 15:11, indicating worries about potential overextension of policies [2][19][75]. Group 2: Misconceptions Among Institutions - A common misconception is that the "Beautiful Act" primarily extends existing tax cuts with limited incremental effects; however, it actually increases the tax cut intensity, with an expected overall tax reduction of 40% in 2026 compared to 2025 [3][25][76]. - Another misconception is that the effects of the tax cuts will be reflected in 2025; in reality, the benefits will manifest in the first half of 2026, particularly around April when tax refunds peak [3][31][76]. - It is also mistakenly believed that the act has already exhausted corporate cash flows, leading to a lack of investment in 2026; however, the act includes provisions that allow companies to benefit from past investments without requiring new expenditures [3][37][76]. Group 3: Potential Economic Growth in 2026 - The first half of 2026 is expected to see a tax refund surge, potentially increasing total refunds by about 30% to reach $412 billion, with per capita refunds rising by $700 to $1,000 to approximately $3,743 [4][43][77]. - The high consumer propensity to spend in the U.S. (46%) suggests that the tax cuts could quickly translate into GDP growth [4][49][77]. - In the second half of 2026, additional fiscal measures are anticipated, particularly in defense and infrastructure, with defense spending projected to rise by 10.4% and border infrastructure spending increasing by 65% [4][61][77].