从抢油到夺岛：解析特朗普的“唐罗主义”（国金宏观赵宏鹤）

Core Viewpoint - Geopolitical issues will become a significant topic driven by the midterm elections, with short-term volatility expected but a strengthening narrative of great power competition in the medium to long term [2] Summary by Sections Midterm Elections and Economic Concerns - Polymarket indicates an approximately 80% chance that the Republican Party will lose the House in the 2026 midterm elections [4] - Trump's acknowledgment of the necessity to win the midterm elections to avoid impeachment highlights the importance of economic issues, particularly the cost of living, which remains challenging due to long-term housing shortages and high mortgage rates [4][7] Trump's Strategy and "Trumpism" - Trump prioritizes personal interests, using foreign policy to regain electoral support if domestic issues fail [7] - His approach, termed "Trumpism," combines U.S. national interests with personal political gains, portraying himself as a protector of American security [8][9] Short-Term Tactics vs. Long-Term Strategy - Trump's preference for quick, impactful actions often leads to superficial successes without addressing deeper strategic issues, as seen in the limited return of U.S. manufacturing despite trade wars [9][10] - The recent Venezuelan situation exemplifies this, where immediate control over Maduro boosted Trump's political standing but lacked a sustainable long-term strategy [10][12] Geopolitical Implications - The strategic value of Greenland aligns with Trump's "Trumpism," but the high costs and local opposition complicate potential U.S. acquisition [15] - The situation in Iran reflects a retreat from U.S. strategic interests, with Trump's actions driven more by political necessity than by a coherent long-term strategy [16] Market Impact and Future Outlook - Geopolitical issues are expected to lead to significant asset price volatility in the coming year, influenced by Trump's short-term tactics [17] - The potential for a stronger dollar and fluctuations in U.S. and non-U.S. stock markets, as well as resource prices, should be monitored as Trump seeks to leverage geopolitical events for political gain [17]