【固收】中资美元债2026年投资展望——中资美元债研究笔记之二（张旭/秦方好）

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the U.S. Treasury yield curve is expected to continue its "steepening" trend, with short-term yields declining due to interest rate cuts, while long-term yields remain volatile due to economic outlook and fiscal sustainability concerns [4] - By January 9, 2026, the iBoxx China USD bond index yield reached 4.82%, highlighting the existing premium between offshore and onshore markets, and suggesting that high coupon opportunities are worth attention [4] Group 2 - The supply side shows a slight decrease in the maturity scale of China USD bonds in 2026 compared to 2025, with a "borrow new to repay old" logic potentially leading to a contraction in supply [5] - Regulatory tightening on local government financing vehicles (LGFVs) and the gradual implementation of domestic debt replacement with foreign debt are expected to limit the growth of supply in this sector [5] Group 3 - On the demand side, there is a strong ongoing demand for high-yield assets due to insufficient supply, and the expansion of the "southbound trading" is expected to attract incremental funds, leading to a steady increase in demand for China USD bonds in 2026 [6] - However, the appreciation expectation of the Renminbi may increase the foreign exchange risk for investors, potentially raising their hedging costs [6] Group 4 - In the context of ongoing "debt reduction" policies, the default risk for local government financing vehicles is relatively low, and their USD bonds are less affected by international factors, making them a stable investment option [8] - For industrial bonds, those from state-owned enterprises and the TMT sector are considered valuable for allocation, while local state-owned enterprises and policy-driven industries may see moderate downshifting [8] - Financial USD bonds from joint-stock banks and bank-affiliated financial companies are recommended for their good liquidity and potential yield exploration [8] - The credit risk in the real estate USD bond sector remains high, necessitating caution following market sentiment shifts after events like Vanke's extension [8]