【有色】全球三大交易所电解铜库存创2013年7月以来新高——铜行业周报（20260112-20260116）（王招华/方驭涛）

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the copper market is expected to remain tight in 2026, supporting a potential increase in copper prices despite current pressures on demand [4]. Supply and Demand - As of January 16, 2026, SHFE copper closed at 100,770 CNY/ton, down 0.63% from January 9, while LME copper closed at 12,803 USD/ton, down 1.50% [4]. - The TC spot price has reached a historical low, indicating tight procurement conditions for copper concentrate [4][6]. - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 17.2% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory rose by 4.6% [5]. Inventory Levels - Domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory stood at 690,000 tons, up 7.8% week-on-week as of January 16, 2026 [5]. - Global electrolytic copper inventory totaled 900,000 tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 7.7% [5]. Supply Factors - In October 2025, China's copper concentrate production was 130,000 tons, down 8.1% month-on-month and 12.1% year-on-year [6]. - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper was 3,391 CNY/ton, down 1,010 CNY/ton from January 9 [6]. Smelting and Processing - The TC spot price was recorded at -46.6 USD/ton, marking a historical low [7]. - In December 2025, China's electrolytic copper production was 1,178,100 tons, up 6.8% month-on-month and 7.5% year-on-year [7]. Demand Insights - Cable manufacturing, which accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand, saw a weekly operating rate of 55.99%, down 0.59 percentage points [8]. - Air conditioning production, representing about 13% of domestic copper demand, is projected to decline by 11.4% and 2.4% in the first quarter of 2026 [8]. Futures Market - As of January 16, 2026, the SHFE copper active contract open interest increased by 24% week-on-week, reaching 226,000 lots [9]. - COMEX non-commercial net long positions were recorded at 53,000 lots, down 7.6% week-on-week [9].