【银行】M2增速升至8.5%,财政货币一揽子政策蓄势待发——2025年12月份金融数据及财政金融协同促内需一揽子政策点评(王一峰/赵晨阳)
光大证券研究·2026-01-18 12:03

Group 1 - The central bank reported a significant increase in new RMB loans in December 2025, totaling 910 billion, with an annual growth rate of 6.4%, down 1.1 percentage points from the beginning of the year. The total new RMB loans for 2025 reached 16.3 trillion, a decrease of 1.8 trillion year-on-year [4][5] - In December, corporate loans increased by 1.07 trillion, up 580 billion year-on-year, indicating that corporate loans continue to play a stabilizing role in loan issuance. The "stabilizing investment" policy in 2026 is expected to further boost corporate lending [5] - The total social financing (社融) in December was 2.2 trillion, with an annual growth rate of 8.3%, reflecting a decrease of 645.7 billion year-on-year [8] Group 2 - The M2 money supply growth rate rose to 8.5% in December, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5 percentage points, driven by increased fiscal spending and a significant rise in non-bank deposits. M1 growth rate, however, fell to 3.8%, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous month due to high base effects [9] - The structural policies are focused on enhancing the effectiveness of financial tools, with measures such as loan interest subsidies and guarantees being implemented to support economic recovery and investment in key sectors [10] - The demand for residential loans remains under pressure, with a negative growth of 916 billion in December, continuing the trend of negative growth observed since October. The total residential loans for 2025 were 441.7 billion, a decrease of 2.28 trillion year-on-year, indicating weak demand in the retail sector [6][7]