【光大研究每日速递】20260119

Group 1: Fixed Income - The U.S. Treasury yield curve is expected to exhibit a "steepening" characteristic in 2026, with short-term yields declining due to anticipated interest rate cuts, while long-term yields remain volatile due to economic outlook and fiscal sustainability concerns [5] Group 2: Real Estate - Recent publications in "Qiushi" focus on real estate and urban renewal, improving and stabilizing market expectations; the central bank has lowered various structural monetary policy tool rates by 0.25 percentage points, which supports local state-owned enterprises in acquiring existing residential properties for affordable housing [6] Group 3: Non-Ferrous Metals - Global copper inventories at major exchanges have reached the highest level since July 2013; the market has priced in the Federal Reserve's decision not to cut rates in January 2026, with tight procurement of copper concentrate reflected in low TC spot prices [7] Group 4: Oil and Chemical - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) held a work meeting to review its "14th Five-Year Plan" and set priorities for 2026, aiming to build a world-class energy group with distinct marine characteristics [9] Group 5: Basic Chemicals - The implementation of "AI+" in chemical research and manufacturing is expected to drive rapid growth in small nucleic acid drugs in 2026, supported by government initiatives promoting the integration of AI and manufacturing [10] Group 6: New Energy and Environmental Protection - The State Grid's fixed asset investment is projected to reach 4 trillion yuan during the "14th Five-Year Plan," a 40% increase from the previous period, with an expected annual compound growth rate of 7%, indicating a focus on counter-cyclical adjustments [10]