研选 | 光大研究每周重点报告 20260103-20260109

Group 1: Macro Research - The optimal model predicts that the ten-year government bond yield will decrease by approximately 3 basis points from the end of January 2026 to the end of February 2026, and by about 6 basis points from the end of 2025 to the end of 2026 [4]. Group 2: Wealth Management Outlook - In 2025, the total market wealth management scale is estimated to grow by around 3.5 trillion to approximately 33-34 trillion, driven by factors such as deposit disintermediation, valuation adjustments, and enhanced returns from rights expansion [6]. - The report analyzes potential changes in the operational logic of wealth management businesses for 2026 through nine key questions across five dimensions [6].