中期选举，权力版图如何重划？——“特朗普经济学”之中期选举

Key Points - The midterm elections will determine the distribution of seats between the two parties in Congress, impacting Trump's policy implementation during the latter half of his term [2][6] - Approximately one-third of Senate seats will be up for election, while all House seats will be contested [7][9] - The House of Representatives is currently controlled by the Republican Party, which holds a slim majority, while the Senate has a more solid Republican presence [9][22] Election Highlights - Key dates include "Super Tuesday" on March 3, where early primaries will take place in North Carolina and Texas, potentially reflecting party dynamics and voter sentiment [3][11] - June will see a peak in primaries with 16 states holding elections, including critical battlegrounds like California and New Jersey [11] Influencing Factors - Redistricting is a significant factor, as both parties are actively working to redraw district boundaries to enhance their chances of winning seats [4][16] - Voter satisfaction, particularly regarding inflation and economic issues, is crucial, with Trump's approval rating dropping from 50% to 43% over the past year [19][21] Potential Outcomes - Historically, the party of the sitting president tends to lose seats in the House during midterm elections, with only 4 out of 31 instances since 1902 where the ruling party maintained its position [22] - If the Democrats regain control of the House, it could significantly impact fiscal legislation, as only the House can initiate tax and revenue-related bills [23]