【广发宏观贺骁束】1月经济初窥

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of various industries in China, highlighting the impact of the Lunar New Year timing on production and sales, as well as the mixed performance across different sectors. Group 1: Power Generation and Industrial Activity - As of January 8, the cumulative power generation from coal-fired power plants increased by 2.6% year-on-year, contrasting with a decline of 8.5% in December [1][6] - The industrial operating rates show mixed trends, with steel production rates improving while chemical production rates decline. The average operating rate of 247 blast furnaces rose by 1.4 percentage points year-on-year [7][8] - The average daily crude steel production from key enterprises increased by 11.8% month-on-month but decreased by 4.1% year-on-year as of January 10 [2][9] Group 2: Construction and Funding - The funding availability rate for construction sites decreased by 0.3 percentage points, indicating a lack of momentum in physical work [11] - The asphalt operating rate fell to 26.3%, down 2.1 percentage points month-on-month, reflecting a decline in construction activity [11][12] Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Sales - The average daily subway ridership in major cities increased by 15.8% year-on-year due to the Lunar New Year timing, indicating a slight recovery in consumer mobility [3][12] - Real estate sales showed a significant decline, with a 38.6% drop in daily average transactions in major cities compared to the same period last year [15] - Retail sales of passenger vehicles fell by 32% year-on-year, with wholesale volumes down by 40% [16] Group 4: Industry-Specific Insights - The photovoltaic industry manager index decreased to 133.0 points, reflecting a slight decline in industry sentiment [13] - The BPI index for industrial products reached a near one-year high, with significant price increases in coal and chemical products [22][23] - Port container throughput increased by 6.3% year-on-year, indicating resilience in logistics despite fluctuations in shipping volumes to the U.S. [18][20]