2025商用具身智能白皮书

Core Insights - Embodied intelligence has gained significant traction globally, with Figure achieving a valuation of $39 billion despite zero revenue, while domestic players are securing commercial orders and projecting substantial revenue growth [1][4] - The Chinese market is integrating embodied intelligence into its strategic development plans, indicating a shift towards a trillion-dollar market landscape [1][9] Definition and Understanding - Embodied intelligence is recognized as a crucial development direction in artificial intelligence, characterized by agents that interact with their environment through a closed-loop of perception, understanding, decision-making, and action [2] - It represents a convergence of machine learning, computer vision, and robotics, marking a significant step towards practical AI applications [2] Commercial Scene Classification - Different forms of embodied intelligence robots are evolving to meet diverse needs across retail, dining, manufacturing, logistics, education, and healthcare [4] - Commercial applications focus on enhancing service experiences and operational flexibility in dynamic environments, while industrial applications emphasize precision, load capacity, and stability [4] Strategic Significance - Embodied intelligence is pivotal in upgrading the technology industry and fostering new sectors, contributing to the collaborative innovation of advanced components like chips and sensors [6] - The competition between China and the U.S. in this field is critical for economic benefits and national competitiveness, positioning it as a key battleground for the next decade [6] Policy Incentives - The Chinese government is actively promoting the development of embodied intelligence through various policies, funding, and standardization efforts [9] - Local governments are also implementing plans and initiatives to support the industry, including establishing funds for humanoid robots and fostering collaboration [9] Development Stages - The evolution of embodied intelligence can be divided into three phases: conceptual development from the 1950s, a technology accumulation phase from 2000 to 2020, and an application expansion phase post-2020 [11] - The U.S. has a head start due to its computational resources and capital ecosystem, while China is rapidly catching up through policy support and industry collaboration [11] Bottlenecks and Challenges - The industry faces significant challenges, including data collection difficulties, high costs of core components, and the need for improved training efficiency [13][16] - The lack of high-quality, real-world data and the immaturity of certain technologies are major constraints on large-scale commercialization [13] Data Acquisition and Breakthroughs - Current data acquisition methods include remote operation, simulation, motion capture, and internet video, but high-quality data remains scarce [16] - Efforts are underway to alleviate data challenges through innovative solutions like "world models" and data collection training grounds [19] Model Evolution - The VLA model is emerging as a consensus for development, integrating large language model reasoning with real-world perception and action capabilities [21] - This evolution is expected to lead to a significant leap in embodied intelligence capabilities, akin to the breakthroughs seen with large language models [21] Commercialization Trends - The commercialization of embodied intelligence is progressing through various application scenarios, with initial focus on low-complexity, high-ROI environments [31] - The industry is transitioning from hardware sales to service subscription models, indicating a shift towards more integrated business approaches [35] Global Market Predictions - The global market for embodied intelligence is projected to reach 19.2 billion RMB by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 73% over the next five years [46] - China's market is expected to experience significant growth, potentially exceeding 280 billion RMB by 2035, driven by a robust industrial ecosystem [50] International Expansion - Chinese companies are accelerating their international presence, moving from core capabilities to localized applications in global markets [53] - Successful case studies highlight the feasibility of Chinese embodied intelligence in meeting high international standards [53] Competitive Landscape - The competition in embodied intelligence features three main players: AI-native challengers like Figure, traditional industrial players like ABB, and cross-industry giants like Tesla [55] - The market is showing signs of product homogenization, suggesting an impending consolidation phase as competition intensifies [57] Startup Strategies - Startups must leverage their agility and innovation to survive against established giants, focusing on strategic partnerships and long-term value creation [59]