中金：港股通与恒指调整预览（2026-2）
中金点睛·2026-01-19 01:31

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming annual review results of the Hang Seng Index series, which will be announced on February 13, 2026, and the potential adjustments to the index constituents that could impact passive fund flows significantly [1][2]. Group 1: Hang Seng Index Adjustments - Some companies meet the criteria for inclusion in the Hang Seng Index, while others may replace the privatized Hang Seng Bank [2]. - Historical data indicates that actual results may differ from predictions based on quantitative criteria, as subjective factors can influence the final decisions [2]. - The Hang Seng Bank was removed from the index on January 14, 2026, due to its privatization, and there is a possibility of other Hong Kong companies being added to maintain a minimum of 20 recognized Hong Kong constituents [2]. Group 2: Hong Kong Stock Connect Adjustments - An estimated 44 stocks are expected to be eligible for inclusion in the Hong Kong Stock Connect, while 25 stocks may be removed due to various criteria such as market capitalization and trading status [3][5]. - The adjustments to the Hang Seng Composite Index will directly affect the investment scope of the Hong Kong Stock Connect, with changes expected to be implemented on March 9, 2026 [4][6]. Group 3: Methodology Changes - The Hang Seng Index Company has optimized its calculation method for the average market capitalization over the past 12 months, which may influence the selection of constituents [4]. - New criteria for inclusion in the Hong Kong Stock Connect have been established, including minimum market capitalization and trading volume requirements [4][13]. Group 4: Timeline and Market Impact - The official results of the index adjustments will be announced after market close on February 13, 2026, with implementation on March 9, 2026 [6][7]. - Following the adjustments, there may be significant trading volume spikes as active funds may engage in arbitrage, while passive funds will likely adjust their holdings to minimize tracking errors [7].