地缘风险加剧，贵金属现货续创新高：申万期货早间评论-20260119

Core Viewpoint - Geopolitical risks are increasing, leading to new highs in precious metals spot prices, with gold surpassing $4650 per ounce and silver rising above $92 per ounce [1] Group 1: Precious Metals - Precious metals are experiencing increased volatility, supported by a macroeconomic environment of easing inflation pressures and a weak job market in the U.S. The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve strengthens the case for precious metals [4][20] - Gold's long-term upward trend is expected to continue due to factors such as weakened dollar credibility and central bank purchases [4][20] - Silver and platinum are also supported by supply-demand gaps, with silver facing tight supply and robust industrial demand, while platinum's demand is driven by hybrid vehicle catalysts and hydrogen energy [4][20] Group 2: Oil and Energy - Oil prices increased by 1.48% in the night session, with geopolitical risk premiums decreasing as Trump adopts a wait-and-see approach regarding Iran [2][14] - OPEC reports indicate that global demand for oil from member countries will remain stable at 43 million barrels per day in 2026, with an increase of 600,000 barrels per day expected by 2027 [2][15] Group 3: Agricultural Products - The Malaysian palm oil production for December was reported at 1,829,761 tons, a decrease of 5.46% month-on-month, while exports increased by 8.52% [3][29] - The U.S. government plans to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending quotas by early March, which is expected to support oilseed prices [3][29] Group 4: Economic Indicators - The U.S. Treasury Secretary stated that Trump's policies are attracting trillions of dollars in investments into the U.S. [7] - The People's Bank of China announced a reduction in the re-lending and rediscount rates by 0.25 percentage points, effective January 19 [8]