谁是新主席、起诉鲍威尔、颠覆美联储？围绕美联储的各种斗争，下周分胜负？

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing political struggles surrounding the Federal Reserve, particularly the investigation into Chairman Jerome Powell, are reaching a critical juncture that could significantly impact market expectations regarding interest rate movements [1][2][3]. Group 1: Investigation into Powell - The criminal investigation into Powell is evolving into a political backlash against the Trump administration, with subpoenas issued regarding renovation costs of the Federal Reserve building [4]. - This backlash resonates within the Republican Party, signaling to the White House that failure to terminate the investigation could hinder the confirmation process for the next Federal Reserve Chair [5]. - Trump's advisors are attempting to de-escalate the situation, suggesting that once the requested information is provided, the matter could be resolved [6][7]. Group 2: Supreme Court Case - The upcoming Supreme Court hearing regarding Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook is crucial for the independence of the Federal Reserve [8]. - The case stems from Trump's attempt to dismiss Cook on allegations of mortgage fraud, which she denies, and her legal challenge aims to protect her position [9]. - A ruling in favor of Trump could undermine the independence of the Federal Reserve by allowing the President to dismiss any Federal Reserve official at will [10]. Group 3: Economic Context - The U.S. GDP growth reached 4.3% in the fourth quarter, raising questions about the justification for interest rate cuts, especially given Trump's previous calls for rates to be lowered to near zero [11]. - If investors perceive that the Federal Reserve is no longer independent in combating inflation, bond yields could rise sharply [12]. Group 4: Future Leadership of the Federal Reserve - The selection process for the next Federal Reserve Chair is expected to conclude soon, with candidates including Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh [14]. - Current indications suggest that Warsh is favored over Hassett, as he is seen as more capable of maintaining a degree of independence, which is viewed positively by Wall Street [15]. - Trump's upcoming speech in Davos may coincide with the announcement of the new Federal Reserve Chair, although there is potential for delays or unexpected candidates [16][17].